Issues

Search

FINDING SUSTAINABLE PATHWAYS

OUR PROCESS

Our process helps Canada achieve sustainable development solutions that integrate environmental and economic considerations to ensure the lasting prosperity and well-being of our nation.

RESEARCH

We rigorously research and conduct high quality analysis on issues of sustainable development. Our thinking is original and thought provoking.

CONVENE

We convene opinion leaders and experts from across Canada around our table to share their knowledge and diverse perspectives. We stimulate debate and integrate polarities. We create a context for possibilities to emerge.

ADVISE

We generate ideas and provide realistic solutions to advise governments, Parliament and Canadians. We proceed with resolve and optimism to bring Canada’s economy and environment closer together.

Home / Parallel Paths – Table of Contents

Parallel Paths – Table of Contents

Contents

0.0 // EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

1.0 // INTRODUCTION

2.0 // SETTING THE STAGE
2.1 // The Canadian-American Trade, Energy and Emissions Relationship
2.2 // Framing Issues: Competitiveness and Policy Delay
2.3 // Research Approach

3.0 // ASSESSING RISKS IN CANADA-U.S. CLIMATE POLICY
3.1 // Canada Lags the U.S. on Climate Policy
3.2 // Canada Leads the U.S. on Climate Policy
3.3 // Canada Harmonizes with the U.S. on Climate Policy
3.4 // Summary: Lag, Lead, or Harmonize?

4.0 // ASSESSING OPPORTUNITIES FOR CANADA-U.S. CLIMATE POLICY
4.1 // Linking with a U.S. Cap-and-Trade System to Harmonize Prices
4.2 // Aligning Carbon Prices through Cost Containment Measures
4.3 // Permit Allocations and Revenue Recycling to Address Regional Impacts
4.4 // Contingent Carbon Pricing to Limit Competitiveness Risks and Achieve Emission Reductions
4.5 // Summary: Opportunities for Canada

5.0 // A TRANSITIONAL POLICY OPTION FOR CANADA
5.1 // The Essential Issue for Canada
5.2 // Summary of Policy Options
5.3 // The NRTEE Transitional Policy Option
5.4 // Economic Outcomes of the Transitional Policy Option
5.5 // Environmental Outcomes of the Transitional Policy Option
5.6 // Summary: A Transitional Policy for Canada

6.0 // CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS

7.0 // APPENDICES
7.1 // Glossary of Key Terms
7.2 // The NRTEE ’s Approach to Assessing Risks
7.3 // Overview of the GEEM Model
7.4 // Assessment of Emissions-Intensive and Trade-Exposed Sectors
7.5 // Overview of Modelling Scenarios and Policy Assumptions
7.6 // Detailed Results
7.7 // Stakeholder Engagement
7.8 // References

List of Figures

FIGURE 1 // Canada/U.S. Exports, Imports, and Trade Balances for Select Industrial Sectors for 2008
FIGURE 2 // Canadian Exports of Oil, Natural Gas and Electricity to the U.S.
FIGURE 3 // Share of Total Electricity Generation by Source for Canada and the U.S. (2006)
FIGURE 4 // U.S. and Canada GHG Projections, 2007-2030
FIGURE 5 // Share of Energy-Related GHG Emissions by Sector for Canada and the U.S., 2007 and 2030
FIGURE 6 // Estimated Contributions to Emission Reductions in 2020 from Government Measures and Remaining Gap
FIGURE 7 // Costs of Delay: Carbon Prices and Total Costs for Three Timing Scenarios
FIGURE 8 // The Canada-U.S. Climate Policy Risk Matrix
FIGURE 9 // Changes in Net Exports to the U.S. from Canada under the Canada Lags Scenario
FIGURE 10 // Average Annual Growth Rates from 2005-2020 for Canadian Emissions-Intensive and Trade-Exposed Sectors under Canada Lags Scenarios (with and without U.S. BCAs)
FIGURE 11 // Risks for Canada under Canada Lags Scenario
FIGURE 12 // Average Annual Growth Rates for Canadian Emissions-Intensive and Trade-Exposed Sectors, 2005-2020 under the Canada Leads Scenario
FIGURE 13 // Risks for Canada under Canada Leads Scenario
FIGURE 14 // Harmonizing on Targets vs. Price: Marginal Abatement Cost Curves for Canada and the U.S.
FIGURE 15 // Forecast Canadian GDP in 2020 for Canada Lags, Canada Leads, and Canada Harmonizes Scenarios
FIGURE 16 // Average Annual Growth Rates from 2005 to 2020 for Canadian 078 Emissions-Intensive and Trade-Exposed Sectors under Main Scenarios
FIGURE 17 // Risks for Canada under the Canada Harmonizes Scenarios
FIGURE 18 // The Canada-U.S. Climate Policy Risk Matrix: Risks for Canada Under Canada Lags, Canada Leads, and Canada Harmonizes Scenarios
FIGURE 19 // GDP Gains and Losses for Canadian Sectors from Linking with the U.S. (Percent Difference in GDP between Linked and Unlinked Scenarios)
FIGURE 20 // Canadian Compliance under Unlinked and Linked Scenarios
FIGURE 21 // Canadian Compliance under Different Harmonization Scenarios
FIGURE 22 // Average Annual Growth Rates 2005 – 2020 for Canadian Emissions-Intensive and Trade-Exposed Sectors under the Transitional Policy Option Scenarios
FIGURE 23 // Estimated Emission Reductions in 2020 Relative to 2005 Under the Transitional Policy Option
FIGURE 24 // Canadian Compliance in 2020 for the Transitional Policy Option

List of Tables

TABLE 1 // Comparison of Canadian and U.S. GHG Emission Reduction Targets
TABLE 2 // Scenarios to Explore Key Timing and Harmonization Risks for Canada
TABLE 3 // Scenarios to Explore Risk Management Opportunities for Canadian Climate Policy
TABLE 4 // Scenarios to Assess Transitional Policy Options
TABLE 5 // Economic Risks of Canada Lags Scenarios
TABLE 6 // Economic Risk of Canada Leads Scenarios
TABLE 7 // Economic and Environmental Impacts of Harmonizing Carbon Targets and Price with the U.S.
TABLE 8 // Economic Impacts of Canada Lags, Canada Leads, and Canada Harmonizes Scenarios
TABLE 9 // Key Drivers and Impacts for Scenarios
TABLE 10 // Forecasted Economic Outcomes of Linkage with the U.S. for Canada
TABLE 11 // Expected Revenue from Canadian Technology Funds
TABLE 12 // Average Annual GDP Growth to 2020 of Provinces under Alternative Revenue Recycling /Permit Allocation Approaches
TABLE 13 // Environmental and Economic Outcomes of Contingent Carbon Pricing for Canada
TABLE 14 // Summary of Policy Options Tradeoffs
TABLE 15 // Emission Reductions in Canada under the Transitional Policy Option
TABLE 16 // Estimate of Likely Revenue from Proposed Technology Fund in 2020
TABLE 17 // Economic Outcomes under the Transitional Policy Option
TABLE 18 // Provincial GDP Impacts of the Transitional Policy Option