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Home / Wedge Advisory Note – Index / Wedge Advisory Note – Section 4

Wedge Advisory Note – Section 4

 

Advice on a Long-term Strategy on Energy and Climate Change

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Section IV: Picturing a Low-Carbon Canada in 2050

The 60 per cent GHG reduction wedge diagram The figure below summarizes the main findings of the 60 per cent GHG reduction 2050 scenario for energy-related sources developed by the NRTEE. This figure is designed to show how existing technology, if more broadly deployed, can meet the climate change challenge. Further it depicts graphically the extent to which different GHG reduction technologies can contribute to the overall reduction goal.
The 60 per cent GHG reduction wedge diagram
 

Wedge

Emissions Reductions Relative to Baseline

(Mt CO2e per year)

Carbon capture & sequestration

190

Renewable electricity

160

Nuclear electricity

45

Energy efficiency and conservation

615

Urban form

105

Biofuels and alternative fuels

195

Co-generation

115

Changes in energy intensity of the economy

165

What does Canada look like under this scenario? It is important to note that this scenario was developed with stringent criteria. It required the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions in 2050 to less than half their current levels while limiting the analysis to existing technologies. The analysis also specified a future that is similar to the present only with a larger population (45 million), a larger economy (more than double in real terms) and growth in oil and gas production that outstrips growth in domestic demand. This scenario would create a Canada that in 2050 would look like this: Personal use of energy Housing densities have increased to the point where 70 per cent of Canadians live in some form of multiple dwelling. With the majority of jobs in services and light manufacturing, these land uses are integrated into residential developments so that it has become common to live and work in the same “walkable” neighbourhood or work at home for several days each week. The average Canadian travels much less than at mid-century; reserving travel more for pleasure than for commuting. Where it is necessary to travel to work, Canadians are now twice as likely to use public transit, which has become more efficient and convenient as a result of higher density and improved design. Personal vehicles are also more efficient, averaging close to 80 mpg (3.6 L/100 km), and are generally fuelled by ethanol mixed with 15 per cent gasoline. One in five vehicles continues to use propane or compressed natural gas. Canada has developed an ethanol production industry, distributed across the nation, supporting production from western farmers as well as northern communities impacted by the slow reduction in the forestry and pulp and paper industry. Canadian homes are much more efficient, as well as being more comfortable and durable as a result of efforts over the past several decades to inspect and upgrade the building stock. Solar heating and power systems are viewed as the norm, with one in three single family homes using a solar water heating system and one in 10 now using photovoltaics. Solar systems are associated with progressive new designs as the majority of systems are located in new subdivisions that have been designed to maximize solar access. An active local network of home renovation and energy services business has developed to provide insulation, air sealing and installation and maintenance of solar energy systems. Energy to drive the economy Electricity is made by a much more diverse and widely distributed set of generators, including a greatly expanded role for local co-generation and micro-turbine systems, wind power and other renewable sources of power. Canada continues to rely heavily on its hydroelectric resources, and a grid with increased east-west connectivity allows the delivery of a highly reliable power supply that combines the output of the new, distributed sources with some remaining central power plants. Where coal is still used to produce electricity, CO2 capture and sequestration has been designed into the plants. Where possible this captured CO2 is used to enhance oil recovery. Existing nuclear plants are replaced, and an additional 9,200 MW capacity is added in Ontario. Freight distribution has not changed dramatically since the turn of the century, though reliance on trucks has declined back to 1990 levels with marine and rail transport picking up the difference. The efficiency of the trucks used to move freight has doubled or tripled over the past four decades and on average bio-diesel now provides about 20 per cent of the energy required for the sector. The industrial structure in Canada has continued its gradual shift to manufacturing, service and high technology manufacturing. Energy intensive industries, while accounting for a declining portion of overall industrial output, have continued to increase their energy efficiency and the value of product produced per unit of energy used. While domestic energy demands have fallen, the oil and gas industry continues to produce at rates similar to those achieved at the turn of the century, exporting oil and gas to the US and the rest of the world. As noted above, the LULUCF impacts are beyond the scope of this study, but there could be a strategic role for the LULUCF “sector” on a low-emission strategy with a time scale of 2050.The anthropogenic influence on the total photosynthetic cycle in Canada is on the order of tens of megatonnes of GHG per year. It can be a source or a sink, and in recent years is estimated to have been a net sink in the range of 40 Mt CO2 equivalent per year. This is a significant amount when compared with the current level of energy-related greenhouse gas emissions (600 Mt CO2 equivalent) and non-energy emissions (140 Mt CO2 equivalent). In a scenario such as the one developed here, in which Canadian energy-related greenhouse gas emissions are in the range of 250 Mt CO2 equivalent by 2050, a successful effort to sustain a 40- or 50-year period in which LULUCF impacts contribute a net sink effect on the order of 100 Mt CO2 equivalent (a very rough estimate based on the assumption of moderately increased levels of biological sequestration) could make a significant contribution to achieving overall climate change policy objectives.