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ECC – Interim Report – Section 4

Interim Report to the Minister of Environment

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4 Initial Findings - Air Pollutant Emissions

Accurately forecasting the emissions, ambient concentration, and health effects of CAC emissions is much more challenging than for GHG emissions. As with GHG emissions, CAC emissions from humans result primarily from fossil fuel combustion. However, CAC emissions differ in three important ways. First, CAC emissions have the greatest effect in the local area around the emissions source. Second, most CACs have a fairly short residence period in the atmosphere, so impacts can vary significantly over time. Finally, while combustion-based GHG emissions can be linked closely to the amount of fossil fuel combusted, combustion-based CAC emissions can vary greatly depending on conditions, fuel quality and end-of-pipe emission controls. As a result of these differences the forecasts generated in the modeling undertaken for the NRTEE should be considered indicators of overall trends, rather than absolute values.18

4.1 Reducing air pollutant emissions by up to 50% is achievable with a relatively modest emissions price signal, but beyond this level, the price must rise considerably.

For CAC emissions, reductions targets of 50% and 80% by 2050 were analyzed (Table 6). Table 6: Scenarios modelled for CAC reductions

Scenario	Long-term  goal (2050)
Deep NOX Reductions - 80% NOX
Shallow NOX Reductions	-50% NOX
Deep SOX Reductions	-80% SO2
ShallowSOX Reductions	-50% SO2
Deep PM Reductions	-80% PM10
Shallow PM Reductions	-50% PM10
Deep VOC Reductions	-80% VOC
Shallow VOC Reductions	-50% VOC

Reducing CAC emissions to 80% below 2003 levels by 2050 is possible, though requires a high price signal. Reducing emissions to 50% requires a much more modest price signal (Figure 5), except for PM which requires a considerably higher emissions price due to process emissions in a number of industries in which abatement options are not available. For both NOX and SOX, the emissions price required to reach the deep target is about six-to-ten times greater than the price required to reach the shallow target. This indicates that the costs of reducing NOX and SOX emissions increase substantially if policy makers wish to reduce CAC emissions to 80% below 2005 levels. Figure 5: CAC prices (2003$) and emissions in the BAU and policy scenarios Neither of the simulations to attain deep (80%) reductions in PM10 or VOC emissions reached their target. Rather, emissions of both PM10 and VOC reached a level where further increases in the emission price did not yield significant additional reductions. For PM10, the level was reached at about 75% reductions, and for VOCs, just under 70% reductions. There are two main reasons why the model’s simulations did not attain the deep targets for PM10 or VOCs. First, a significant portion of PM10 and VOC emissions arise from processes over which businesses and consumers have little control if they are to continue pursuing the activity. For example, a large portion of PM10 emissions come from processes such as grinding clinker and limestone or blasting and quarrying rock, and a large portion of VOC emissions arise from equipment leaks and exposed oil sands in the upstream oil industry. Second, the model used does not include the abatement technologies required to attain a deep reduction in PM10 or VOC emissions. For example, new technologies or processes that may emerge as a result of a GHG price cannot be incorporated in the model. As a result, the modeling may underestimate the emissions reductions caused by emissions prices. Finally, to achieve reductions in the order of 50% in PM, the modeling indicated that the only option was to reduce industrial output in some sectors, notably oil sands and mining. Reducing output is a very high cost option for reducing emissions, and explains the high PM costs for the 50% target in Figure 5. 18 The national forecast that was used in this analysis provides a useful indicator as to potential health and environmental effects from CAC emissions, but is not sufficient to accurately measure these outcomes, which can only be determined by detailed anal