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2011 KPIA Reponse – Figure 2 Description

Response of the National Round Table on the Environment and the Economy to its Obligations under the Kyoto Protocol Implementation Act - July 2011

Figure 2: Comparison of Total Emissions Reductions Attributed to Individual Measures in the 2011 KPIA Plan and Emissions Reductions of these Measures Projected Using Integrated Modelling, 2008–2012

(Data from or derived from 2011 KPIA Plan; both estimates include all policies and programs reported in the 2011 Plan)

Figure 2 illustrates the difference between the two sets of emissions reduction projections based on a comparison of the two approaches to estimation. Curve A in the figure is calculated by adding up the reductions attributed to each individual measure in the measure-by-measure estimates contained in the 2011 Plan. Collectively, these estimates suggest approximately 18 megatonnes (Mt) of emission reductions for 2012 are attributed to the full set of programs and policies included in the 2011 Plan. Curve B represents the estimated overall emission reductions from all programs and policies in the Plan as calculated by the integrated modelling. As the figure illustrates, the 2011 Plan forecasts that when implemented together, all the programs and policies in the Plan will result in about 9 Mt of emissions reductions in 2012. By the end of the Kyoto period, the cumulative emissions reductions are forecast to be 54 Mt on an individual measure-by-measure basis but only 27 Mt on an integrated modelling basis.

Projected emissions reductions relative to reference case (Mt CO₂e)