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2011 KPIA Response – 1.0 Introduction

Response of the National Round Table on the Environment and the Economy to its Obligations under the Kyoto Protocol Implementation Act - July 2011

On June 22, 2007, the Kyoto Protocol Implementation Act (Bill C-288, henceforth called KPIA) received Royal Assent.

The KPIA stipulates that the Government of Canada is obliged to prepare — on an annual basis — a Climate Change Plan describing measures and policies enacted by the government to “ensure that Canada meets its obligations under Article 3, paragraph 1, of the Kyoto Protocol” [Subsection 5(1)]. The government’s fifth Climate Change Plan was released on June 2, 2011.

Subsection 10(1) of the Act requires the National Round Table on the Environment and the Economy (NRTEE or Round Table) to, within 60 days of the publication of the Climate Change Plan stipulated in Subsection 5(1), perform the following with respect to the Plan:

(a) undertake research and gather information and analyses on the Plan or statement in the context of sustainable development; and

(b) advise the Minister on issues that are within its purpose, as set out in section 4 of the National Round Table on the Environment and the Economy Act, including the following, to the extent that they are within that purpose:

(i) the likelihood that each of the proposed measures or regulations will achieve the emission reductions projected in the Plan or statement;

(ii) the likelihood that the proposed measures or regulations will enable Canada to meet its obligations under Article 3, paragraph 1, of the Kyoto Protocol, and

(iii) any other matters that the Round Table considers relevant.

This report represents the fifth response of the National Round Table on the Environment and the Economy to the requirements created by the Kyoto Protocol Implementation Act with respect to the government’s annual Climate Change Plan. In carrying out its statutory obligations, the NRTEE has undertaken research and gathered information. This activity focused on addressing Subsections 10(1)(b)(i) and 10(1)(b)(ii). As allowed for under Subsection 10(1)(b)(iii), the NRTEE has also reviewed and commented upon broader aspects of the KPIA as it relates to the government’s Plan.

In accordance with the stipulations of the Act, our Response has been provided to the Minister of the Environment. This fulfills the NRTEE’s current obligations under the KPIA.

The government’s 2011 KPIA Plan, A Climate Change Plan for the Purposes of the Kyoto Protocol Implementation Act – May 2011 (henceforth referred to as the 2011 Plan) [i], details expected emissions reductions resulting from specific measures to address climate change, as well as an integrated modelling analysis [1] that presents the reductions expected to accrue from the full suite of policies relative to a reference case, or business as usual emissions pathway. [2] The stated emissions reductions for individual policies outlined in the 2011 Plan are derived from initiative-level evaluations performed by Environment Canada, Natural Resources Canada (NRCan), and Transport Canada, while the integrated modelling figures are compiled by Environment Canada.

The analysis in this Response examines the likelihood that the stated emissions reductions attributed both to the full suite of policies and to individual policies accurately reflects the incremental emissions reductions we should expect to see as a result of their implementation. [3] By extension, it also assesses the likelihood that emissions projections reflect the best expectations of actual greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions for the years 2008–2012, or the Kyoto period. It also assesses whether Canada will achieve its Kyoto Protocol GHG emissions target over the defined Kyoto Protocol period.

The 2011 Plan notes the NRTEE’s contribution from previous Responses and the government’s “commitment to transparency.” The NRTEE wishes to acknowledge at the outset that the government continues to make improvements to its forecasting and that the NRTEE is broadly supportive of the integrated modelling presented in the Plan. We hope that the 2011 Response from the NRTEE can further assist the government in its ongoing efforts to improve GHG forecasting and policy evaluation.
           
This Response is organized as follows: Section 2 describes the methodological approach taken by the NRTEE in its analysis. Section 3 provides an overview of the 2011 Plan itself. Section 4 highlights the key issues that emerged from our analysis and assessment. Section 5 evaluates the Plan in the context of Canada’s Kyoto Protocol obligations. Finally, Section 6 draws conclusions and provides recommendations. Analysis of individual policies and programs is provided in Appendix A.

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[i]Canada, 2011a.

[1]Following a recommendation from the NRTEE

[2]Denoted in the 2011 Plan as “emissions excluding federal government measures.”

[3]Incremental emissions reductions are those that occur over and above what could reasonably have been expected to occur absent the policies or actions.