Degrees of Change – 4.0 Securing Canada’s Prosperity in a Warming World
4.0 Securing Canada’s Prosperity in a Warming World
Canadians face risks and opportunities from a changing climate.
Along with its trading partners, Canada has committed to limiting global warming to 2°C. Even limiting warming to 2°C implies impacts, here and around the world.
An uncertain outlook does not change the need for enhanced adaptation action now. To secure Canada’s prosperity through a changing climate, we need to understand that climate change will be a fundamental driver of economic risk and opportunity over the next few decades. The degrees of change diagram illustrates that climate change is not just an environmental issue, it will affect almost every aspect of life in Canada. Some of the economic effects of climate change will arise because of changes in Canada’s climate. Other economic effects will arise because of changes in the climates of other countries and their responses to them.
Understanding the economic effects of climate change helps us to plan better for our future. It helps us figure out where we need to invest to mitigate damage and adapt to effects. If we have a better idea of the likely economic effects of climate change, we can better understand what is at stake if we fail to respond to the changing climate — and we can better understand how to respond in a way that safeguards our prosperity. We need to reframe adaptation as an economic opportunity to limit future losses and prevent creating a long-term economic burden for Canadians not yet born.
Existing evidence on the costs of climate impacts and the costs and benefits of adaptation is limited. Canada’s first national-scale assessment of climate change impacts and adaptation — the Canada Country Study[218] — concluded that the environmental, economic, and social costs in Canada would be large. Other studies since then have produced a varied picture, with some regions and sectors at significant economic risk, and others expected to do better. We do not have a good idea yet of what the overall economic implications could be. We need to develop one. Further evidence will help Canada move forward on cost-effective measures to reduce the economic costs of climate change. The existing evidence on the likely economic effects of climate change in Canada is insufficient to inspire or enable effective planning, either by governments or by businesses.
The NRTEE is moving forward with research on the economic risks and opportunities of a changing climate to help fill this knowledge gap.
The fourth report of our Climate Prosperity series will provide estimates of possible costs of climate change impacts over the next century, highlighting the economic risks and opportunities to Canada. It will also illustrate the role of adaptation in cost-effectively managing these risks and opportunities.
Minimizing economic risks and taking advantage of potential opportunities from a changing climate, in many cases, requires coordinated, deliberate, and sustained action across a number of priority areas. Grounded in case studies and experience of early adapters, the fifth report of the Climate Prosperity series, will offer advice to governments and others on a policy pathway to catalyze additional action and to sustain adaptation into the future.
Together, we hope these three reports on climate change impacts and adaptation and the knowledge and recommendations they bring will help secure Canada’s prosperity in a warming world.
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Footnotes
218 Mayor & Avis (1998).
© 2013