Degrees of Change – 1.0 Adapting to Risks and Opportunities of Climate Change
1.0 Adapting to Risks and Opportunities of Climate Change
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1.1 Adapt and Prosper
Climate change is real and happening now.
Mounting scientific evidence indicates that, together with natural drivers of climate variability, emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases (GHGs) from human activities are acting like a heat-trapping blanket, causing the Earth to warm. Since 1850, the average temperature on the Earth’s surface has increased by about 0.78°C.[1]
The physical and biological effects of this warming on indicators such as sea level, extent and thickness of sea ice and glaciers, rain and snowfall patterns, and range and life histories of plants and animals are being felt around the globe. Evidence suggests that the world may well be facing decades, if not centuries, of warming, along with the effects that flow from it if the warming trend is not arrested. At a minimum, the current buildup of GHGs in the atmosphere commits the world to a further 0.6°C of warming over the next three decades.[2] Observed changes in climate indicators and related biological and physical impacts across the globe since the mid-20th century match scientific expectations of global warming effects.[3] Regardless of uncertainties, it’s prudent to take action now to manage the risks of a changing climate.
Canada is not immune from the climate change phenomenon. Temperatures in Canada have risen faster than the globe as a whole, with an average 1.3°C rise since the mid-20th century.[4] Effects of this warming are already apparent across the country. The impacts of climate change will touch all regions of Canada, presenting environmental, social, and economic risks and some potential opportunities. Specific vulnerabilities to future climate change on a regional and sectoral basis have increasingly been highlighted by a range of comprehensive scientific assessments.[5]
We are just starting to understand how prepared Canada is to successfully manage the effects of a changing climate. Already in our 2009 report, True North: Adapting Infrastructure to Climate Change in Northern Canada, the National Round Table on the Environment and the Economy (NRTEE) concluded that the current patchwork of public and private sector initiatives designed to build capacity to manage the effects of climate change, when added together, ran the risk of being ineffective and expensive. Other advisory bodies have reached similar conclusions for specific regions in Canada.[b]
The NRTEE is dedicating three reports of its Climate Prosperity program to help develop a national roadmap to adapt and prosper through climate change. The NRTEE believes that strategic and concerted action is necessary now to sustain Canada’s early adaptation efforts, and to promote the efficiency and effectiveness of climate-sensitive policy and investment decisions over the long term. Together, our reports will explain the implications of a warming world for Canada’s environment and economy, and recommend adaptation strategies to avoid future costs and position us to gain from potential opportunities.
Climate Prosperity does not assume that climate change is a good news story for Canada. But, how we and the world react to it — both through adaptation and mitigation actions — will have a lot to do with our future prosperity. We see a range of opportunities for Canadian businesses, consumers, and households in the global transition to a low-carbon economy. We also think it’s smart policy to encourage action so Canada and Canadians can benefit from adapting to expected and inevitable climate change in the short term while investing to reduce or avoid climate change damage in the long term.
In this report, we set out the problem, explaining how climate change could affect our country. The Degrees of Change diagram created for this report is a uniquely Canadian illustration to help visualize key implications for our country of a warming world in a range of areas, from ice, snow and sea to security and trade. We summarize a large body of evidence developed by the federal government, research organizations, and others on the way in which climate change is affecting and could affect Canada in this century and map our findings onto a global temperature scale. In doing so, we show how the effects of climate change could develop and intensify here at home, as the world warms. It represents our contribution to raising awareness and understanding of the many connections between our continued health and well-being and the changing climate.
Governments, businesses, and communities can use the information contained in Degrees of Change and contemplate strategic adaptation choices that minimize the risks and take advantage of potential opportunities that a changing climate may present. Canadians can use the diagram to consider the implications of meeting or failing to meet a commitment reinforced in 2009 by 100 heads of state in Copenhagen of keeping global climate warming below 2°C relative to pre-industrial levels.[c] Using Degrees of Change, we can begin to assess on a broad scale what kind of preparations we, as a society, may need to make to manage the effects of a warming world, while working to prevent undesirable climate futures that loom on the horizon.
Some conclusions are already apparent when it comes to managing the early effects of a changing climate:
1 // We can cost-effectively reduce, and in some cases avoid, adverse impacts of climate change on the health and safety of Canadians, the economy, and our environment.
In planning our communities, growing our economy, designing and building our infrastructure, and managing natural resources we have tended to take the stability of the climate for granted. That is, we assumed past climate — both variability within historical ranges and averages — was a good guide to the future. But, as temperatures increase, as moisture patterns change, as other weather and climate conditions that we used to rely on for work, play, or economic gain become less reliable, we will be forced to react to these new and changing realities. As a country, we could apply our talents and ingenuity to take steps now to prepare for the future, preventing a domino effect of costs and setbacks in achieving social, environmental, and economic goals we have set for ourselves.
2 // We can gain economically from developing and providing climate adaptation solutions to domestic and global markets.
Canadian corporations have already started to assess their competitive climate advantage and to identify investment opportunities and technological applications to help address global problems, such as access to water, that climate change accentuates. As awareness of the risks and opportunities posed by climate change continues to grow, so too will the application of market solutions to the climate change challenge.
3 // We can anticipate and prepare for global security challenges heightened by climate change and shifting trade patterns.
In a globalized economy and an increasingly interconnected world, we cannot ignore the potential ramifications for Canada of the impacts of climate change and actions taken in response to them in other countries. The increased navigability of Arctic waters and related access to energy and mineral resources is one example with the potential to both bring economic opportunities and pose national security and (local and global) environmental risks. The continued effect of a changing climate on patterns of extreme events, water resources, and food and fibre production on a global basis has implications for Canada’s policy choices in areas such as immigration, international development, peacekeeping, diplomacy, and international trade.
1.2 Our Changing Global Climate
The global climate has changed significantly over the Earth’s history.[6] In the past two and a half million years, it has swung between ice ages and warmer, interglacial conditions. Changes in climate conditions also take place over shorter time scales, with considerable regional variation.
| Climate refers to the prevailing weather patterns of a planet or a region over time. Weather is more short lived, referring to air temperature, air pressure, humidity, wind, cloud cover, and precipitation at a specific time and place. |
Natural drivers of climate change include variations in the Earth’s orbit, solar energy output, sunspot cycles, and volcanic eruptions. Together, these natural causes can explain much of the change in global climate conditions experienced over the past several thousand years. However, natural factors do not fully explain the global temperature record and changes in other climate and weather indicators observed over the late 20th century. Scientists are concluding that much of the changes observed over the 20th century and into the 21st century are linked to the discharge of GHGs into the atmosphere from industrial processes, transportation, and energy use in buildings, and from agricultural and forestry activities. In the process of running our economies and living our lives, we are amplifying the greenhouse effect (see Box 1).
Table 1 below summarizes key changes in climate and weather patterns already observed on a global basis:
Table 1: Observed Changes in Global Climate and Weather Indicators
| Indicator | Change | Time period |
| Air temperature | Increased 0.78°C | 1850–2009 |
| Ocean temperature | Increased to depths of 3000m, widespread warming in the upper 700m | 1961–2003 |
| Ocean chemistry | Increased 0.1 unit on pH scale at the surface, representing a 30% increase in ocean acidity | Due to uptake of atmospheric carbon since 1750 |
| Sea level | Rose 0.17m | 1870–2000 |
| Snow cover | Declined | Northern hemisphere, since 1960s |
| Mountain glaciers | Widespread retreat | Since 1900 |
| Arctic sea-ice extent | Decreased 2.5% per decade | Rate between 1978 and 2005 |
| Extent of seasonally-frozen ground | Decreased by about 7% | Since 1900 |
| Heavy precipitation events | Increased in frequency | Since 1950 |
| Droughts | Increased in intensity and duration | Since 1970s |
| Heat waves | Increased in frequency and duration | Since 1950s |
| Tropical cyclones | Increased in intensity[d] | Since mid-1970s |
| Sources: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2007); Warren and Egginton (2008); Secretariat of the Convention on Biological Diversity (2009) | ||
In Canada, we see that average temperatures have increased 1.3˚C since the mid-20th century. This national average masks substantial variability across regions. Figure 1 shows that the rise in annual temperatures has been more pronounced in northern and western parts of the country compared to the southeast.
Figure 1: Average temperature changes in Canada by region between 1948 and 2008
Sources: Annual regional temperature departures from climate normal, trends and extremes,1948 to 2008, from Environment Canada, Science and Technology Branch, Climate Research Division, http://www.ec.gc.ca/adsc-cmda/default.asp?lang=En&n=F3D25729-1
If the world continues emitting GHGs like carbon dioxide at current levels, average global temperatures could rise by up to 6°C by the end of this century.[7] Canada has joined other countries in recognizing that the global temperature rise ought not to exceed 2°C above pre-industrial levels.[e] The policy goal is to halve global emissions by 2050 in order to limit the speed and intensity of climate change and to reduce the odds of triggering serious and irreversible changes to the global climate system that are beyond our collective experience and capacity to adapt.
But, even if we succeeded in drastically cutting GHGs today, the global climate would well be facing several decades, if not centuries, of change from the buildup of emissions and momentum already in the climate system. This is because GHGs stay in the atmosphere for many years, and because the climate and other components of the Earth system, such as the oceans, land-based ice sheets, and major forested landscapes, take time to respond to the effect of greenhouse gases and interact with each other through feedbacks and in other complex ways (see Box 2).
Scientists are generally confident in overall global patterns of warming but cannot predict the exact timing or the very localized effects of climate change. We must therefore adapt to and limit climate change based on risk and precaution, not certainty. Engineers, public health officials, insurers, farmers, and foresters are already accustomed to this way of thinking; they, and others throughout the economy, already make decisions by assessing risk. That is exactly the approach we now need to apply to adapt to a changing climate: assessing and managing the risks — and the opportunities — that result from climate change by combining experience and context-specific knowledge with the best available science.
1.3 The NRTEE’s Degrees of Change Report
This NRTEE report illustrates the range and detail of scientifically accepted information on the possible effects of climate change in Canada over this century. It points to viable response strategies to begin to manage related risks and opportunities through adaptation.
This report serves two purposes:
FIRST, the NRTEE uses its Degrees of Change diagram to explain to Canadians how the effects of climate change could develop and intensify in Canada. A number of international science bodies assess the likely consequences and very long-term risks associated with global warming for the world as a whole or for specific global regions. Our diagram (and this report) is not a scientific assessment. It is a summary of the science literature on the expected effects of climate change in Canada over the 21st century. By illustrating the possible effects of climate change in sectors and systems that are significant to Canada, it helps build understanding of how adapting to these effects now and into the future will be necessary to secure our prosperity in uncertain climate futures. It also sheds light on some of the impacts that may prove challenging, if not impossible, to adapt to.
SECOND, it lays the groundwork for the NRTEE’s forthcoming work on climate change impacts and adaptation by outlining the scope and scale of the issue. This report does not include cost estimates of the impacts of climate change or of adaptation strategies to address related risks or opportunities. NRTEE analysis on the possible costs of action or inaction at the national level and costs and benefits of adaptation, and advice on practical pathways to deepen engagement and action on adaptation in Canada will follow in two later reports of the Climate Prosperity series.[f]
Our report follows this structure:
CHAPTER 2 is the core of the report. It describes the NRTEE’s Degrees of Change diagram, explaining each element of it: the global temperature scale, the eight impact categories, and the expected effects within each category. It starts with guidelines for readers, moves on to highlight the impacts we can expect to see, and includes examples of what households, businesses, communities, and governments can do to manage these impacts.
CHAPTER 3 discusses the implications of the NRTEE’s Degrees of Change diagram. It summarizes what a warming world could mean for Canadians, the places where we live and that surround us, and how we make our living. It emphasizes the importance of a Canada-wide adaptation response and describes strategies to adapt to uncertain climate futures.
CHAPTER 4 concludes with key messages on the risks of a changing climate for Canada and the importance of adaptation in managing these risks. It also sets out next steps for the NRTEE concerning our work on climate change impacts and adaptation.
Approach to developing the Degrees of Change diagram:
What follows is an explanation of the approach we took to developing the core of this report — our Degrees of Change diagram. In all, the diagram includes eight categories, covering direct impacts of climate change, and environmental, social, and economic effects flowing from them:
- Ice, snow, and sea
- Ecosystems
- Water resources
- Human health
- Communities and infrastructure
- Resource industries
- Service industries
- Security and trade
As a whole, the diagram highlights 60 specific effects of climate change scientists expect to occur over this century. It relates these effects to increases in global average temperatures above pre-industrial levels. For most categories, we find few studies containing numerical estimates of future effects of climate change for Canada. Where numerical estimates exist, they rarely refer to specific degrees of global temperature change. Furthermore, depending on their scope and assumptions, studies covering the same topic — say the effects of climate change on agriculture production — sometimes disagree on the magnitude of effect expected, with impacts spanning both positive and negative values.[g]
Summary diagrams such as Degrees of Change require making appropriate judgment calls and reasoned inferences. Our aim in developing the diagram was to strike the right balance between presenting complex and comprehensive information in a way that it is accessible to many Canadians and staying true to the underlying scientific evidence, benefiting from the advice of several experts. With this aim in mind, the diagram’s development involved the following stages:
1// A literature review of international diagrams summarizing impacts of climate change as a function of global temperature rise, including the work of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, and of relevant reports on climate change impacts and adaptation in Canada. The literature review informed our selection of impact categories.
2// Development of a first draft diagram for Canada and supporting documentation by Dr Barry Smit, Professor, Canada Research Chair in Global and Environmental Change, University of Guelph.
3// Four waves of review and refinement [h]:
- Review of the first draft diagram and supporting documentation by three experts in climate change impacts and adaptation. Their feedback confirmed the relevance of the impact categories selected and the overall exercise. It also revealed the need for a more transparent and systematic approach to justify the position of specific effects of climate change on the global temperature scale.
- Review of a refined diagram and justifications for each climate change effect included in it by eight national and regional experts in climate change impacts and adaptation. They helped validate the choice of climate change effects included in the diagram and their position on the global temperature scale, and recommended seeking further feedback from subject-matter experts for impact categories of higher profile.
- Review of the climate change effects in the diagram pertaining to sea ice, snow, and permafrost by four Canadian experts in the related disciplines led to further refinements.
- A final review by two Canadian experts in climate change impacts and adaptation. This helped us complete the diagram and ensure that the work was a fair and compelling representation of the underlying evidence.
The Degrees of Change diagram first appeared in the October 2010 issues of the magazines Canadian Geographic and Géographica. This was a result of a joint project between the NRTEE and the Royal Canadian Geographical Society.
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Footnotes
b The Ontario Expert Panel on Climate Change Adaptation concluded that Ontario needed a comprehensive strategy to address current and future changes in climate, and that “piecemeal, uncoordinated actions will be insufficient and costly.” (page 28, Adapting to Climate Change in Ontario, November 2009). Available at: http://www.ene.gov.on.ca/publications/7300e.pdf
c The Copenhagen Accord includes an article (Article 12) that states that by 2015 governments will decide whether the 2°C target is good enough or whether the new target should be set at 1.5°C.
d At an October 2010 panel discussion in Halifax hosted by the NRTEE and the Royal Canadian Geographical Society, Environment Canada meteorologist Dr. Gary Lines indicated that it is likely that future tropical cyclones will become more intense, with larger peak wind speeds and more heavy precipitation, but that no scientific consensus existed on whether we can expect an increase in activity.
e This commitment is contained in: Backgrounder: Canada’s Action on Climate Change; 17 December 2009; Ottawa, Ontario. Available at: http://www.pm.gc.ca/eng/media.asp?id=3037
f Through the Climate Prosperity series, the NRTEE will issue seven reports in total between now and 2012. Three reports highlight risks and opportunities for Canada in a changing climate, provide analysis on the economics of climate change impacts and adaptation, and deliver policy advice to advance adaptation nationally. Three focus on analysis and advice to help position Canada in the global low-carbon transition. A final report will discuss the role of citizen engagement in shaping and advancing climate policy. For more information see http://www.climateprosperity.ca
g Estimates of the economic effects of climate change on land values and farm incomes in Canada differ by several orders of magnitude. Reinsborough (2003) calculated an increase in land value of $1.5 million (+/- $40 billion) between 1995 and 2020, whereas Weber and Hauer (2003) found a land value increase of $5.24 billion between 1995 and 2050.
h See Appendix 5.3 for the list of expert reviewers and their affiliations.
1 Estimated from: http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcrut3/diagnostics/global/nh+sh/annual. Accessed February 19, 2010.
2 IPCC (2007); Hansen et al. (2004).
3 See Figure TS1 in Parry et al. (2007).
4 Temperature departures from climate normals are from Table 2.7 in Statistics Canada’s Human Activity and the Environment: Annual Statistics. See http://www.statcan.gc.ca/pub/16-201-x/2009000/t057-eng.htm Table 2.7 - Annual regional temperature departures from climate normal, trends, and extremes, 1948 to 2008. Accessed June 15, 2010. Environment Canada is the source quoted in Statistics Canada. Environment Canada, Meteorological Service of Canada, Climate Research Branch, 2009, Climate Trends and Variations Bulletin for Canada, Annual 2008, http://www.ec.gc.ca/adsc-cmda/default.asp?lang=En&n=F3D25729-1
5 These studies include the Canada Country Study (Mayor and Avis 1998), the report Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation: A Canadian Perspective (Lemmen and Warren [2004]), Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (2005), From Impacts to Adaptation: Canada in a Changing Climate 2007 (Lemmen et al. [2008]), and Human Health in a Changing Climate (Séguin[ 2008]).
6 This section draws from several sources, including Lemmen and Warren (2004).
7 Solomon et al. (2007); see likely ranges on Table TS.6, page 70. To express temperature change relative to pre-industrial times add 0.5ºC.
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