1. Residential - Existing Buildings - Energy Retrofits

Single Detached made 30% more efficient, Multiple dwellings made 20% more efficient and all oil and gas furnaces converted to 90% efficient.

27

13

There are about 6.6 million single-family homes in Canada in 2003, along with 5.6 multi-family dwellings. Over the next 50 years it is assumed that roughly 90% of existing homes are inspected (an energy audit) to identify where savings can be made through air sealing, insulation upgrades, etc. and that these improvements are carried out. This implies that 2.5-3% of Canadian homes will need to be audited and retrofitted each year; that is approximately 165,000 homes per year.

Virtually every furnace in service today will be replaced by 2050. Current standards represent a significant improvement compared to the efficiency of equipment typically installed even a decade ago. This wedge assumes that these standards will be upgraded to require high-efficiency (>90%) furnaces as the new standard by 2008 so that every home heating with fossil fuels will be equipped with a high-efficiency furnace.

There are over 3.5 million homes in Canada that heat using electricity. In provinces which use a significant amount of coal to produce electricity, we have assumed 5% of these homes are converted to other sources each year. This means that some 520,000 electrically heated homes in Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba and the Atlantic provinces will need to be converted at a rate of about 26,000 homes per year. In areas where natural gas is not accessible, these homes would be converted to high-efficiency propane furnaces. Similar efforts have been successful in the past to encourage homeowners to transition away from oil heating (Canada Oil Substitution Program).

As a result, homes without basement insulation would be upgraded, air sealing would be upgraded to improve home comfort and windows upgraded where appropriate. Every home that could benefit from one will have an automatic setback thermostat installed over the next 10 years. It is expected that many of these upgrades will be cost-effective for homeowners and result in more comfortable homes - and energy bills - with homeowners enjoying energy costs at least 30% lower than they would otherwise have been.

2. Residential - Lighting, Equipment & Appliances Efficiency

12

6

The average Canadian home has 40 light bulbs, of which about 16 are used regularly. The majority of lamps today are 60 watt incandescent. Twenty years from now, virtually all household lighting will be provided by compact fluorescent lamps and the use of LED lighting will be as common as CFLs are today. By 2050, a combination of CFLs and LED will be used in most homes.

Over the past decade, the average efficiency of major household appliances has increased dramatically. The average energy consumption for fridges and freezers has dropped by over 40%. Over the next 50 years, we assume that electrical appliance efficiency will increase by a further 25%, while appliances such as stoves and dryers will become only 20% more efficient. In 2001 the average new refrigerator used 559 kWh per year compared to 950 kWh per year in 1993. By 2050, we assume this will drop to 419 kWh which is within the range of appliances available today.

Residential lighting energy use per household will be reduced by 60% by 2025 and by 75% by 2040; non-substitutable appliance efficiency increases 25%, substitutable appliances by 20%.

3. Residential

28

14

4.1 million new single-family dwellings and 3.4 million multi-family dwellings are projected to be built by 2050. To create this new building stock, at least 102,000 new single-family homes and 85,000 new multi-family units will be built each year across Canada, with actual new starts being somewhat higher to replace existing homes that are demolished or replaced for various reasons. Roughly 40% of the housing stock in 2050 will have been built after 2003.

This wedge assumes that new single detached homes will be 30% more efficient and new multiple dwellings 60% more efficient than current standards by 2010. New homes would be better insulated and sealed, with higher quality windows and doors, heated with high-efficiency furnaces with setback thermostat controls as a standard and designed to take greater advantage of available solar gain in winter.

4. Residential

0.3

0.15

Current standards require that all new central AC units have a SEER of at least 10. Higher efficiency equipment is available today with a SEER of 15. This wedge assumes that improvements to building envelopes as well as higher SEER units will reduce AC use by 40%.

5. Residential

11

7

By 2050, virtually every home that has a washing machine will use a front-loading design, while all showerheads, taps and toilets will be water efficient reducing overall water heating demands. As natural gas water heaters are retired over the next 40 years, they will be replaced by new 78% efficient devices.

There are 6.5 million electric water heaters in Canada. This wedge assumes that over the next 15 years, half of these units can be converted to tankless systems now available on the market, reducing energy use (standby losses) by 15%. All of the approximately 500,000 oil-fired water heaters are assumed to be converted to natural gas by 2020. In both instances these changes could occur as the existing tanks are retired at the end of their useful lives.

  6. Economic/Structure Changes

a) Urban Form/Neighborhood Planning - dwelling type mix, mobility requirements, district energy potential

2% annual shift from Single Detached to Multi-Family dwellings. Passenger transportation PKT assumed to be 33% lower for multi-family households.

105

52

In 2003, 54% of Canadians lived in single-family homes and travelled an average of 9,674 km/year.

By 2050, we assume that 71% of Canadians will have transitioned to multi-family homes (apartments, condominiums or row housing). As a result of higher housing densities and more integrated land uses, the average Canadian will have less need of private modes of transportation, significantly reducing their vehicular travel.

b) Shift from Energy Intensive Industry to Manufacturing

20

11

Gross output from energy intensive industries will declined by an average of 0.5% per year with compensating growth in other industrial sectors.

c) Continued historic structural and/or process changes for all sectors, including transportation

144

65

Continues historic changes in energy intensity across all sectors reflecting both structural and process changes.

7. Commercial - Existing Building Retrofits and Energy Management

28

14

Commercial buildings are renovated more frequently than residential homes. Some commercial/industrial buildings may undergo several major renovations between now and 2050.

Over the next 40 years, 50% of buildings are retrofitted to reduce energy use by 25%. The rest are renovated to the equivalent of the LEED platinum standard, reducing energy use by 50%, all by 2050.

8. Commercial

26

13

All new buildings constructed after 2010 required to meet LEED Platinum standard, reducing energy use by 60% over current standards. Impact equal over all equipment categories.

9. Commercial - Lighting and Equipment Electrical Efficiency

20

11

Lighting - reduced by 30% by 2015 and by 50% by 2025

Auxiliary Equipment - reduced by 25% by 2020, slightly exceeding current Energy Star standards.

Water heating - reduced by 35% by 2020, largely due to reduced demand supported by improved efficiency of water heating systems.

Auxiliary Motors - reduced by 20% by 2020, due to combination of improved controls and design.

Cooling - reduced by 30% by 2020, largely due to reduced internal loads plus improved building shell.

10. Personal Transportation - Vehicle Fuel Efficiency

89

46

2005-2014, efficiency increases 2.25%/year.

Results in efficiency of 3.01L/100km by 2050, or 78 mpg in US measurements.

Also assume transit bus efficiencies triple by 2050.

11. Personal Transportation

11

5

Increased public transportation usage by 1.39% per year, approximately doubling its share of PKM from 4.2% to 8.03% by 2050.

Personal vehicle travel declines by an assumed 0.2% per year due to 2% increase per year in non-motorized modes of travel.

12. Personal Transportation

5

2

Light vehicle use reduced by 0.28% per year due to increase in telecommuting and substitution of communications for travel.

13. Freight Transportation

158

126

Light & Medium trucks triple fuel efficiency by 2050. Heavy Trucks double fuel efficiency by 2050.

Rail and Marine sectors decrease energy intensity by 50% and 25% respectively.

14. Freight Transportation

13

7

Modal splits return to 1990 levels.

Rail & Marine each increase by 5%, Trucking declines 10%.

15. Alternative Fuels/Vehicles

7

3

By 2050, 50% of diesel used is a 20% (B20) blend with the result that bio-diesel supplants 10% of all diesel use.

16. Alternative Fuels/Vehicles

53

28

Under Canada's Ethanol Expansion Program, Canada expects to produce 1.4 billion litres of ethanol per year by 2007, seven times what it was prior to the launch of the program, and enough to meet the Government of Canada's climate change target for ethanol production two years ahead of schedule.More on Ethanol Expansion Program and Government's ethanol targets and support programs: http://news.gc.ca/cfmx/view/

This wedge envisions 172.5 PJ of ethanol use in 2050 equal to 8.2 billion L of ethanol with much of this produced from cellulose-based materials. This is roughly half the level of current Brazilian production of 14 Billion L or US production of 15 Billion Litres.

Fifty to sixty plants will be required to produce this volume, providing local employment across Canada, with an opportunity to locate some of these jobs in northern areas.

Gasoline production falls to 109 PJ per year compared to 2,433 PJ in the Base Case.

By 2010 - 100% of all gas contains 10% ethanol

17. Alternative Fuels/Vehicles

8

4

Sales of hydrogen vehicles grow over period.

18. Biomass Fuels

-

-

See 31 a below.

19. Hydrogen as Carrier

n.a.

n.a.

Impact of hydrogen assumed to occur primarily in transportation. Use of fuel cells for stationary heat/power assumed to be fueled by natural gas rather than hydrogen.

20. Carbon Capture and Storage

191

191

All fossil fired generation in Alberta and Saskatchewan use CO2 capture by 2040, reducing emissions by 90% from what they would otherwise be without CO2 capture.

30% of all oil and gas emissions (extraction and refining, etc.) are captured by 2030 rising to 60% capture by 2050.

21. Energy Intensive Industry (excluding electric power and oil & gas sectors)

50

26

Energy Intensive industry continues to improve its efficiency at rates similar to those achieved between 1990 and 2003:

Pulp & Paper - Energy intensity increases 10%/tonne/yr.

By 2030, 80% of energy comes from wood wastes.

Iron & Steel - energy use per tonne declines 20% by 2050 Smelting & Refining - as above

22. Secondary Manufacturing

42

27

Energy intensity/$GDP declines by 2.8% per year.

  23. Oil and Gas Industry:

a) Reduction of Emission

97

74

Oil Sands energy intensity per dollar of gross output declines by 1% per year.

Pipelines reduce energy intensity per dollar of gross output by a modest 0.5% per year.

Petroleum Refining industry reduces energy intensity by 0.6% per cu. m. of product per year.

b) Fugitive Emissions

27

22

Fugitive emissions are reduced by 30% by 2020 and by 60% by 2030.

  24. Electricity Supply Wedges:

a) Nuclear Re-tubing

Included with new nuclear (see below)

b) New Nuclear

44

20

All existing nuclear replaced plus an additional 9,200 MW capacity added in Ontario.

c) Large Hydro

18

8

In May 2006, Quebec Hydro announced its intention to build 4,500MW of new hydraulic capacity based on sites in northern Quebec (Globe & Mail, May 4, 2006, page B1). This exceeds the increase envisioned in this wedge.

2025 - 2000 MW installed in Manitoba

d) Wind

105

50

In May 2006, Quebec Hydro announced that it plans to build 4,000MW of new wind capacity, in addition to the 3,000 MW already committed. Ontario has indicated its intention to acquire 5,000 MW of wind by 2025. This wedge envisions just over four times that amount of capacity being added in the next 40 years.

40,000 MW of wind by 2020 rising to 50,000 MW of capacity by 2050

e) Photovoltaic

4

2

5,000 MW of solar capacity installed by 2050

This assumes a 5KW solar array on less than 10% of 10.7 million Canadian homes. Starting in 2010, 2.7% of homes are assumed to install Solar PV systems each year with an average of 25,000 homes per year across Canada install PV arrays.

f) Biomass

-

-

See Wedges 31a) and 31b) below

g) Small Hydro

11

5

7,500 MW of capacity installed by 2040

h) Tidal/Wave/OTEC

23

10

Tidal = 4,000 MW; 3/4 in BC balance in Maritimes.

25. Electricity

3

2

Interconnections increased by 2000 MW between Quebec & Ontario, Manitoba & Ontario, and Alberta & BC flowing in both directions starting 2020.

26. Electricity

116

73

Growth in Cogeneration capacity:

Industry - 875 MW per year

27. Landfill Gas Recovery and Utilization

6

5

50% of current landfill gas is captured and recovered as heat or electricity by 2050.

28. Solar Water Heating

8

4

Residential - 30% of all single detached homes are retrofitted with solar DHW (domestic hot water) heating supplying 50% of needs by 2050 with most of this occurring in new construction as subdivisions are designed to maximize solar opportunities.

Commercial - 50% of water heating needs in the Health Care & Social Services, Education and Accommodation and Food sectors is supplied by solar in 2050. Virtually all commercial and institutional buildings that can accommodate one is equipped with a solar DHW system by 2050.

29. Geothermal Energy

13

6

Geothermal energy to provide1.6% of total electric generation capacity by 2050.

Ground source heat pumps to supply 1% of national heating and air conditioning, using 2/3 less energy than systems that they replace.

  30. Alternative Fuel Wedges:

a) Wood & Biomass Fuel

37

17

Residential use of wood heating assumed to double by 2050. Biomass assumed to supply 90% of Pulp & Paper and 75% of Forestry sector stationary energy needs. Municipal energy from waste assumed to supply 60 PJ of heat to residential and commercial sectors.

b) Biogas

2

1

By 2050, 800 MW of power is supplied by biogas generation with half of the available waste heat from generation captured to displace on-farm stationary fuel use.

c) Peat

n.a.

n.a.

No provision is made for the use of peat. Burning peat could reduce emissions if allowance is made for reductions in natural emissions from peat lands.

31. Switch to Lower Carbon Fossil Fuels

82

43

By 2050, 20% of passenger transportation is supplied by propane; 50% is supplied by CNG. In the Freight sector, CNG displaces the 23% of energy now supplied by gasoline.

TOTAL

1,644

1,013