1.
Residential – Existing Buildings – Energy Retrofits

Single
Detached made 30% more efficient, Multiple dwellings
made 20% more efficient and all oil and gas
furnaces converted to 90% efficient.

27

13

There
are about 6.6 million single-family homes in
Canada in 2003, along with 5.6 multi-family
dwellings. Over the next 50 years it is assumed
that roughly 90% of existing homes are inspected
(an energy audit) to identify where savings
can be made through air sealing, insulation
upgrades, etc. and that these improvements are
carried out. This implies that 2.5-3% of Canadian
homes will need to be audited and retrofitted
each year; that is approximately 165,000 homes
per year.

Virtually
every furnace in service today will be replaced
by 2050. Current standards represent a significant
improvement compared to the efficiency of equipment
typically installed even a decade ago. This
wedge assumes that these standards will be upgraded
to require high-efficiency (>90%) furnaces
as the new standard by 2008 so that every home
heating with fossil fuels will be equipped with
a high-efficiency furnace.

There
are over 3.5 million homes in Canada that heat
using electricity. In provinces which use a
significant amount of coal to produce electricity,
we have assumed 5% of these homes are converted
to other sources each year. This means that
some 520,000 electrically heated homes in Alberta,
Saskatchewan, Manitoba and the Atlantic provinces
will need to be converted at a rate of about
26,000 homes per year. In areas where natural
gas is not accessible, these homes would be
converted to high-efficiency propane furnaces.
Similar efforts have been successful in the
past to encourage homeowners to transition away
from oil heating (Canada Oil Substitution Program).

As
a result, homes without basement insulation
would be upgraded, air sealing would be upgraded
to improve home comfort and windows upgraded
where appropriate. Every home that could benefit
from one will have an automatic setback thermostat
installed over the next 10 years. It is expected
that many of these upgrades will be cost-effective
for homeowners and result in more comfortable
homes – and energy bills – with homeowners enjoying
energy costs at least 30% lower than they would
otherwise have been.

2.
Residential – Lighting, Equipment & Appliances
Efficiency

12

6

The
average Canadian home has 40 light bulbs, of
which about 16 are used regularly. The majority
of lamps today are 60 watt incandescent. Twenty
years from now, virtually all household lighting
will be provided by compact fluorescent lamps
and the use of LED lighting will be as common
as CFLs are today. By 2050, a combination of
CFLs and LED will be used in most homes.

Over
the past decade, the average efficiency of major
household appliances has increased dramatically.
The average energy consumption for fridges and
freezers has dropped by over 40%. Over the next
50 years, we assume that electrical appliance
efficiency will increase by a further 25%, while
appliances such as stoves and dryers will become
only 20% more efficient. In 2001 the average
new refrigerator used 559 kWh per year compared
to 950 kWh per year in 1993. By 2050, we assume
this will drop to 419 kWh which is within the
range of appliances available today.

Residential
lighting energy use per household will be reduced
by 60% by 2025 and by 75% by 2040; non-substitutable
appliance efficiency increases 25%, substitutable
appliances by 20%.

3.
Residential

– New Building Shell Efficiency

(heating/cooling)

28

14

4.1
million new single-family dwellings and 3.4
million multi-family dwellings are projected
to be built by 2050. To create this new building
stock, at least 102,000 new single-family homes
and 85,000 new multi-family units will be built
each year across Canada, with actual new starts
being somewhat higher to replace existing homes
that are demolished or replaced for various
reasons. Roughly 40% of the housing stock in
2050 will have been built after 2003.

This
wedge assumes that new single detached homes
will be 30% more efficient and new multiple
dwellings 60% more efficient than current standards
by 2010. New homes would be better insulated
and sealed, with higher quality windows and
doors, heated with high-efficiency furnaces
with setback thermostat controls as a standard
and designed to take greater advantage of available
solar gain in winter.

4.
Residential

– Air Conditioning Efficiency

0.3

0.15

Current
standards require that all new central AC units
have a SEER of at least 10. Higher efficiency
equipment is available today with a SEER of
15. This wedge assumes that improvements to
building envelopes as well as higher SEER units
will reduce AC use by 40%.

5.
Residential

– Water Heating (Efficiency, Water Conservation
& Fuel Choice)

11

7

By
2050, virtually every home that has a washing
machine will use a front-loading design, while
all showerheads, taps and toilets will be water
efficient reducing overall water heating demands.
As natural gas water heaters are retired over
the next 40 years, they will be replaced by
new 78% efficient devices.

There
are 6.5 million electric water heaters in Canada.
This wedge assumes that over the next 15 years,
half of these units can be converted to tankless
systems now available on the market, reducing
energy use (standby losses) by 15%. All of the
approximately 500,000 oil-fired water heaters
are assumed to be converted to natural gas by
2020. In both instances these changes could
occur as the existing tanks are retired at the
end of their useful lives.

 
6. Economic/Structure Changes

a)
Urban Form/Neighborhood Planning – dwelling
type mix, mobility requirements, district energy
potential

2%
annual shift from Single Detached to Multi-Family
dwellings. Passenger transportation PKT assumed
to be 33% lower for multi-family households.

105

52

In
2003, 54% of Canadians lived in single-family
homes and travelled an average of 9,674 km/year.

By
2050, we assume that 71% of Canadians will have
transitioned to multi-family homes (apartments,
condominiums or row housing). As a result of
higher housing densities and more integrated
land uses, the average Canadian will have less
need of private modes of transportation, significantly
reducing their vehicular travel.

b)
Shift from Energy Intensive Industry to Manufacturing

20

11

Gross
output from energy intensive industries will
declined by an average of 0.5% per year with
compensating growth in other industrial sectors.

c)
Continued historic structural and/or process
changes for all sectors, including transportation

144

65

Continues
historic changes in energy intensity across
all sectors reflecting both structural and process
changes.

7.
Commercial – Existing Building Retrofits and
Energy Management

28

14

Commercial
buildings are renovated more frequently than
residential homes. Some commercial/industrial
buildings may undergo several major renovations
between now and 2050.

Over
the next 40 years, 50% of buildings are retrofitted
to reduce energy use by 25%. The rest are renovated
to the equivalent of the LEED platinum standard,
reducing energy use by 50%, all by 2050.

8.
Commercial

– New Buildings

– Integrated Building Systems for Energy Efficiency

26

13

All
new buildings constructed after 2010 required
to meet LEED Platinum standard, reducing energy
use by 60% over current standards. Impact equal
over all equipment categories.

9.
Commercial – Lighting and Equipment Electrical
Efficiency

20

11

Lighting
– reduced by 30% by 2015 and by 50% by 2025

(High-efficiency T8 systems with electronic
ballasts, occupancy sensors and day lighting
become standard).

Auxiliary
Equipment – reduced by 25% by 2020, slightly
exceeding current Energy Star standards.

Water
heating – reduced by 35% by 2020, largely due
to reduced demand supported by improved efficiency
of water heating systems.

Auxiliary
Motors – reduced by 20% by 2020, due to combination
of improved controls and design.

Cooling
– reduced by 30% by 2020, largely due to reduced
internal loads plus improved building shell.

10.
Personal Transportation – Vehicle Fuel Efficiency

89

46

2005-2014,
efficiency increases 2.25%/year.

2015-2020, efficiency increases 2.40%/year.

2021-2050 efficiency increases 2.55%/year.

Results
in efficiency of 3.01L/100km by 2050, or 78
mpg in US measurements.

Also
assume transit bus efficiencies triple by 2050.

11.
Personal Transportation

– Public Transit, Non-Motorized Modes

11

5

Increased
public transportation usage by 1.39% per year,
approximately doubling its share of PKM from
4.2% to 8.03% by 2050.

Personal
vehicle travel declines by an assumed 0.2% per
year due to 2% increase per year in non-motorized
modes of travel.

12.
Personal Transportation

– Mobility, Improved Access & Trip Reduction

5

2

Light
vehicle use reduced by 0.28% per year due to
increase in telecommuting and substitution of
communications for travel.

13.
Freight Transportation

– Vehicle Efficiency

158

126

Light
& Medium trucks triple fuel efficiency by
2050. Heavy Trucks double fuel efficiency by
2050.

Rail
and Marine sectors decrease energy intensity
by 50% and 25% respectively.

14.
Freight Transportation

– TKT Reduction & Mode Split (rail vs. truck)

13

7

Modal
splits return to 1990 levels.

Rail
& Marine each increase by 5%, Trucking declines
10%.

15.
Alternative Fuels/Vehicles

For Transport – Bio-diesel

7

3

By
2050, 50% of diesel used is a 20% (B20) blend
with the result that bio-diesel supplants 10%
of all diesel use.

16.
Alternative Fuels/Vehicles

For Transport – Ethanol

53

28

Under
Canada’s Ethanol Expansion Program, Canada expects
to produce 1.4 billion litres of ethanol per
year by 2007, seven times what it was prior
to the launch of the program, and enough to
meet the Government of Canada’s climate change
target for ethanol production two years ahead
of schedule.More on Ethanol Expansion Program
and Government’s ethanol targets and support
programs: http://news.gc.ca/cfmx/view/

en/index.jsp? articleid=158789.

This
wedge envisions 172.5 PJ of ethanol use in 2050
equal to 8.2 billion L of ethanol with much
of this produced from cellulose-based materials.
This is roughly half the level of current Brazilian
production of 14 Billion L or US production
of 15 Billion Litres.

Fifty
to sixty plants will be required to produce
this volume, providing local employment across
Canada, with an opportunity to locate some of
these jobs in northern areas.

Gasoline
production falls to 109 PJ per year compared
to 2,433 PJ in the Base Case.

By
2010 – 100% of all gas contains 10% ethanol

By 2030 – 50% of all gas contains 85% ethanol

By 2050 – 100% of gas contains 85% ethanol

17.
Alternative Fuels/Vehicles

For Transport – Hydrogen

8

4

Sales
of hydrogen vehicles grow over period.

By 2050 5% of passenger vehicles and buses and
6% of fleet vehicles sold use hydrogen.

18.
Biomass Fuels

– Direct Burning

–

–

See
31 a below.

19.
Hydrogen as Carrier

– Overall potential in stationary applications

n.a.

n.a.

Impact
of hydrogen assumed to occur primarily in transportation.
Use of fuel cells for stationary heat/power
assumed to be fueled by natural gas rather than
hydrogen.

20.
Carbon Capture and Storage

191

191

All
fossil fired generation in Alberta and Saskatchewan
use CO2 capture by 2040, reducing emissions
by 90% from what they would otherwise be without
CO2 capture.

30%
of all oil and gas emissions (extraction and
refining, etc.) are captured by 2030 rising
to 60% capture by 2050.

21.
Energy Intensive Industry (excluding electric
power and oil & gas sectors)

– targeted emission reductions, industrial energy
efficiency

50

26

Energy
Intensive industry continues to improve its
efficiency at rates similar to those achieved
between 1990 and 2003:

Pulp
& Paper – Energy intensity increases 10%/tonne/yr.

By
2030, 80% of energy comes from wood wastes.

Iron
& Steel – energy use per tonne declines
20% by 2050 Smelting & Refining – as above

Chemicals – energy intensity declines 2.5% per
year.

Cement – energy intensity declines 0.1% per
year.

Mining (excluding Oil &Gas) – energy intensity
declines 1% per year.

22.
Secondary Manufacturing

– energy efficiency

42

27

Energy
intensity/$GDP declines by 2.8% per year.

 
23. Oil and Gas Industry:

a)
Reduction of Emission

Intensity per Unit of Energy Produced

97

74

Oil
Sands energy intensity per dollar of gross output
declines by 1% per year.

Pipelines
reduce energy intensity per dollar of gross
output by a modest 0.5% per year.

Petroleum
Refining industry reduces energy intensity by
0.6% per cu. m. of product per year.

b)
Fugitive Emissions

27

22

Fugitive
emissions are reduced by 30% by 2020 and by
60% by 2030.

 
24. Electricity Supply Wedges:

a)
Nuclear Re-tubing

Included
with new nuclear (see below)

b)
New Nuclear

44

20

All
existing nuclear replaced plus an additional
9,200 MW capacity added in Ontario.

c)
Large Hydro

18

8

In
May 2006, Quebec Hydro announced its intention
to build 4,500MW of new hydraulic capacity based
on sites in northern Quebec (Globe & Mail,
May 4, 2006, page B1). This exceeds the increase
envisioned in this wedge.

2025
– 2000 MW installed in Manitoba

2020 – 2800 MW installed in Labrador

2030 – 2000 MW installed in Quebec/Ontario

d)
Wind

105

50

In
May 2006, Quebec Hydro announced that it plans
to build 4,000MW of new wind capacity, in addition
to the 3,000 MW already committed. Ontario has
indicated its intention to acquire 5,000 MW
of wind by 2025. This wedge envisions just over
four times that amount of capacity being added
in the next 40 years.

40,000
MW of wind by 2020 rising to 50,000 MW of capacity
by 2050

e)
Photovoltaic

4

2

5,000
MW of solar capacity installed by 2050

This
assumes a 5KW solar array on less than 10% of
10.7 million Canadian homes. Starting in 2010,
2.7% of homes are assumed to install Solar PV
systems each year with an average of 25,000
homes per year across Canada install PV arrays.

f)
Biomass

–

–

See
Wedges 31a) and 31b) below

g)
Small Hydro

11

5

7,500
MW of capacity installed by 2040

h)
Tidal/Wave/OTEC

23

10

Tidal
= 4,000 MW; 3/4 in BC balance in Maritimes.

Wave = 10,000 MW by 2050.

25.
Electricity

– East West Connectivity

3

2

Interconnections
increased by 2000 MW between Quebec & Ontario,
Manitoba & Ontario, and Alberta & BC
flowing in both directions starting 2020.

26.
Electricity

– Cogeneration (industrial cogeneration, micro
turbines and CHP)

116

73

Growth
in Cogeneration capacity:

Industry
– 875 MW per year

Commercial – 440 MW per year

Residential – 695 MW per year added to apartments
and condos

27.
Landfill Gas Recovery and Utilization

6

5

50%
of current landfill gas is captured and recovered
as heat or electricity by 2050.

28.
Solar Water Heating

8

4

Residential
– 30% of all single detached homes are retrofitted
with solar DHW (domestic hot water) heating
supplying 50% of needs by 2050 with most of
this occurring in new construction as subdivisions
are designed to maximize solar opportunities.

Commercial
– 50% of water heating needs in the Health Care
& Social Services, Education and Accommodation
and Food sectors is supplied by solar in 2050.
Virtually all commercial and institutional buildings
that can accommodate one is equipped with a
solar DHW system by 2050.

29.
Geothermal Energy

13

6

Geothermal
energy to provide1.6% of total electric generation
capacity by 2050.

Ground
source heat pumps to supply 1% of national heating
and air conditioning, using 2/3 less energy
than systems that they replace.

 
30. Alternative Fuel Wedges:

a)
Wood & Biomass Fuel

37

17

Residential
use of wood heating assumed to double by 2050.
Biomass assumed to supply 90% of Pulp &
Paper and 75% of Forestry sector stationary
energy needs. Municipal energy from waste assumed
to supply 60 PJ of heat to residential and commercial
sectors.

b)
Biogas

2

1

By
2050, 800 MW of power is supplied by biogas
generation with half of the available waste
heat from generation captured to displace on-farm
stationary fuel use.

c)
Peat

n.a.

n.a.

No
provision is made for the use of peat. Burning
peat could reduce emissions if allowance is
made for reductions in natural emissions from
peat lands.

31.
Switch to Lower Carbon Fossil Fuels

82

43

By
2050, 20% of passenger transportation is supplied
by propane; 50% is supplied by CNG. In the Freight
sector, CNG displaces the 23% of energy now
supplied by gasoline.

TOTAL

1,644

1,013