Renewable Grid Power – Appendix C
Case Study on Renewable Grid-Power Electricity
Appendix C: References, Assumptions and Notes on Grid-Power RET Resources
Assumptions and Notes for Installed Capacity|
Grid Power RET |
Source for Capacity |
Notes |
|
Wind |
Ref 4 |
Current installations shown on CanWEA website. |
|
Hydro |
Ref 13 |
Includes many existing small hydro sites that may NOT be EcoLogo- certifiable. |
|
Solar PV |
Ref 1 |
|
|
LFG |
Ref 3 |
|
|
Biomass |
Ref 3, p. 119 |
Many of the existing 1900 MW of biogas plants are NOT EcoLogo- certifiable and are off-grid such as for pulp and paper industry plants. Only 128 MW used by independent power producers. |
|
Wave |
Ref 11 |
Plans for 4MW wave generator off B.C. fell through. |
|
Tidal |
Ref 3 |
20 MW quoted in reference for N.S. tidal generator, but not EcoLogo- certifiable so not counted. |
|
Geothermal |
Ref 5 |
|
Grid-Power RET |
Source for |
Notes |
||
|
Capacity Factor |
Low Potential |
High Potential |
||
|
Wind |
Ref 1 |
Ref 13 |
Ref 14 |
Offshore wind is not considered in the estimate as data are largely non-existent (Ref 20). Even though turbines in Canada are typically 25%-35% capacity factor today, 35% was chosen from PP 2002 paper since higher and larger turbines are expected in the future. |
|
Hydro |
Ref 13 |
Ref 6 |
Ref 18 |
Ref 18 notes: “based on EcoLogo: larger than 11,000 MW, assuming that most existing sites smaller than 20 MW can be exploited in a fashion that complies with EcoLogo requirements, and that there are several more sites that are larger than 20 MW for which one could assume the same. We know that at least 3,000 MW more than identified in the Atlas exist in Canada, based on local assessments.” |
|
Solar PV |
Ref 3, pp.113-121 |
Ref 2 |
Ref 22 |
CanSIA representative indicated that total potential cited by Pollution Probe (9,785 MW) is very low– recommended using 70,000 MW as a minimum with no maximum supplied. Therefore, use PP estimate as low value, and 100,000 as high (number chosen in the absence of others supplied). |
|
LFG |
Ref 3, pp. 113-121 |
Ref 16 |
Ref 3, pp. 113-121 |
Conestoga Rovers and Associates (CRA): “Although all landfills produce methane, there is a certain threshold LFG production rate that the landfill has to produce to make capture and utilisation an economically viable proposition.” |
|
Biomass |
Ref 3, pp. 113-121 |
Ref 3, pp. 113-121 |
Ref 12, p. 10 |
High: BIOCAP estimates 2 EJ/yr available biomass energy. |
|
Wave |
Ref 11 |
Ref 11 |
Ref 11 |
|
|
Tidal |
Ref 1 |
Ref 11 |
Ref 3 |
PP notes: “at a 30% capacity factor, 1 TW of wave power could provide five times the electricity Canada consumes in a year (about 600 TWh).” |
|
Geothermal |
Ref 5 |
Ref 5 |
||
|
Grid-Power RET |
Source for |
Notes
|
|||
|
2010 – Low |
2010 – High |
2020 – Low |
2020 – High |
||
|
Wind |
Ref 3, pp. 113-121 |
Ref 4 |
Ref 3 |
Ref 20 |
CanWEA:
“… it is clear that electricity
grids can handle at least 20% penetration by
intermittent
renewable energy sources at a reasonable cost
(approx. 45,000 MW of wind). Canada has the
wind resource to do this, but we still have
to assess if it is ‘practical’ from
a transmission standpoint.”
Offshore wind not included because currently
no estimates exist from independent sources.
The best available estimate is 2,500 MW of economically
feasible offshore wind power, consisting of
500 MW on each coast and 1,500 MW on the Great
Lakes;
source: O’Gorman, Steve; Canadian Hydro
Developers response to extracts from Pollution
Probe Green Power Workshop Backgrounder
document for Feb. 2004 workshop. |
|
Hydro |
Ref 18 |
Ref 13 |
Ref 18 |
Reference 18 notes: • Feasible by 2010: 5,600 MW (= 40% of total; includes projects already in the pipeline) • Feasible by 2020: 9,800 MW (= 70% of total) |
|
|
Solar PV |
Ref 22 |
Ref 21 |
Ref 3, pp. 113-121 |
Ref 22 |
CanSIA notes: “PV has likely gone as far as it can in significant increases in deployment in ‘off grid’ markets in Canada. International, industrialized country markets are now 90% grid and 10% off grid– we would expect Canada to follow international trends. PV is installed on building roofs and hence the criteria on distance to transmission lines is irrelevant – the limitations relate to the surface area of buildings that have adequate exposure to solar energy… should not be a limiting factor. CanSIA estimates that the industry can sustain 35-40% annual growth without putting a strain on its infrastructure.” |
|
LFG |
Ref 3, pp. 113-121 |
Ref 3, pp.113-121 |
Environment Canada agrees with PP 2002 numbers as being double and triple today’s installed capacity. |
||
|
Biomass |
Ref 23 |
Ref 23 |
Ref 3, pp. 113-121 |
Most
biomass is waste from industrial processes and
most technical studies do not differentiate
well the
breakdown of biomass into grid-connected and
off-grid (on-site use for other industrial processes).
Maximums assume aggressive use of residual biomass
from agricultural and other industries, even
though some, especially agriculture, need to
recycle biomass back into the soil to preserve
nutrients for future crop growth.
PP later clarified that 1500-2000 MW could be
possible for 2010. High estimate was used instead
of
previous low of 6000 MW. |
|
|
Wave |
Ref 23 |
Ref 23 |
Ref 23 |
PP said still experimental and no utility-sized plants until after 2020, so maybe only a pilot plant before then. |
|
|
Tidal |
Ref 23 |
Ref 23 |
Ref 23 |
Ref 23 |
PP said maybe a pilot by 2010, then increasing by maybe 50 MW or more by 2020. |
|
Geothermal |
Ref 19 |
Ref 3, pp.113-121 |
Ref 3, pp.113-121 |
Only
B.C. has hot enough geothermal potential to
tap into for electricity generation. Only two
companies found were looking at this generation:
Western Geopower and North Pacific Geopower.
Both companies recognized finite potential that
could be harnessed using technology available
in the near future. |
|
© 2013