Wedge Advisory Note – Section 6
Advice on a Long-term Strategy
on Energy and Climate Change
Section VI: Conclusions
and Key Findings
The greatest value of re-examining climate change through
a long, rather than a short-term lens is that looking
forward to 2050 helps to take a fresh look at the most
effective strategies for reducing greenhouse gas emissions
in a way that is responsive to Canada’s unique circumstances.
Some of the changes in focus and some key messages are:
Focus
on Canada’s role as an energy producer and exporter,
since achieving significant GHG emissions necessitates
developing energy resources in a sustainable manner.
For the oil and gas industry that means incorporating
carbon capture and storage into future development plans.
On the power generation side it means a combination
of clean coal technology including carbon capture and
storage and a national strategy for the deployment of
renewable energy.
There
are significant opportunities to sell this type of technology
in international markets. But Canada should be cautious
about promoting solutions for other countries that are
not yet solutions at home. These technologies should
continue to be tested domestically through technology
platforms to demonstrate commercial success and export
viability. Coupled with international demonstration
projects in “receptor” countries, the technology
platform concept can be instrumental in the demonstration
of commercial potential and provide a focus for investment
leading to expanded trade in climate-related technologies
and services, for example the International Test Centre
for CO2 Capture at the University of Regina and the
affiliated Boundary Dam field test facility.
Focus
on technology deployment. Although this analysis
shows that existing and near commercial technology hold
the potential to “bridge the gap” if widely
deployed, there must be a broad portfolio of initiatives,
as there is no one “magic” wedge. In contrast
to the debate that has swirled around the achievement
of the Kyoto targets, the question is not which technologies
to deploy, but how to deploy many or even all of the
potential GHG reduction technologies at unprecedented
levels of implementation. This is particularly true
in the area of energy efficiency.
Combine
long-term certainty and short-term action. A focus
on affecting decisions being made now on capital stock
investments must include policy certainty on climate
change policy. This analysis suggests that there is
a need for urgency, since all three of the strategic
priorities are expected to undergo significant expansion
and renewal. An estimated $36 billion in investment
is planned for the oil sands in the next six years –
an investment that will last at least 40 years. During
these four decades, 34 per cent of Canada’s housing
stock will be new, and within 20 years, the Canadian
Electricity Association estimates that at least $150
billion of electricity infrastructure will be constructed.
New, long-life capital stock provides once-in-a-generation
opportunities for GHG reductions through the adoption
of best available technologies and structures. What
we plan and begin now will influence our emissions in
2050 and beyond.
Important
co-benefits. Lowering GHG emissions can lead to
many additional environmental and economic co-benefits.
Many of the GHG reduction wedges also have significant
clean air advantages. This is particularly true of the
measures associated with the three strategic priorities,
since they encompass some of the more enduring problems
areas with regard to criteria air pollutants such as
transportation and fossil-fired electricity generation.
© 2013