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Wedge Advisory Note – Section 4

Advice on a Long-term Strategy
on Energy and Climate Change

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Section IV: Picturing a
Low-Carbon Canada in 2050

The
60 per cent GHG reduction wedge diagram

The
figure below summarizes the main findings of the 60
per cent GHG reduction 2050 scenario for energy-related
sources developed by the NRTEE. This figure is designed
to show how existing technology, if more broadly deployed,
can meet the climate change challenge. Further it depicts
graphically the extent to which different GHG reduction
technologies can contribute to the overall reduction
goal.

What
does Canada look like under this scenario?

It
is important to note that this scenario was developed
with stringent criteria. It required the reduction of
greenhouse gas emissions in 2050 to less than half their
current levels while limiting the analysis to existing
technologies. The analysis also specified a future that
is similar to the present only with a larger population
(45 million), a larger economy (more than double in
real terms) and growth in oil and gas production that
outstrips growth in domestic demand.

This
scenario would create a Canada that in 2050 would look
like this:

Personal
use of energy

Housing
densities have increased to the point where 70 per cent
of Canadians live in some form of multiple dwelling.
With the majority of jobs in services and light manufacturing,
these land uses are integrated into residential developments
so that it has become common to live and work in the
same “walkable” neighbourhood or work at
home for several days each week. The average Canadian
travels much less than at mid-century; reserving travel
more for pleasure than for commuting. Where it is necessary
to travel to work, Canadians are now twice as likely
to use public transit, which has become more efficient
and convenient as a result of higher density and improved
design.

Personal
vehicles are also more efficient, averaging close to
80 mpg (3.6 L/100 km), and are generally fuelled by
ethanol mixed with 15 per cent gasoline. One in five
vehicles continues to use propane or compressed natural
gas. Canada has developed an ethanol production industry,
distributed across the nation, supporting production
from western farmers as well as northern communities
impacted by the slow reduction in the forestry and pulp
and paper industry.

Canadian
homes are much more efficient, as well as being more
comfortable and durable as a result of efforts over
the past several decades to inspect and upgrade the
building stock. Solar heating and power systems are
viewed as the norm, with one in three single family
homes using a solar water heating system and one in
10 now using photovoltaics. Solar systems are associated
with progressive new designs as the majority of systems
are located in new subdivisions that have been designed
to maximize solar access. An active local network of
home renovation and energy services business has developed
to provide insulation, air sealing and installation
and maintenance of solar energy systems.

Energy
to drive the economy

Electricity
is made by a much more diverse and widely distributed
set of generators, including a greatly expanded role
for local co-generation and micro-turbine systems, wind
power and other renewable sources of power. Canada continues
to rely heavily on its hydroelectric resources, and
a grid with increased east-west connectivity allows
the delivery of a highly reliable power supply that
combines the output of the new, distributed sources
with some remaining central power plants. Where coal
is still used to produce electricity, CO2 capture and
sequestration has been designed into the plants. Where
possible this captured CO2 is used to enhance oil recovery.
Existing nuclear plants are replaced, and an additional
9,200 MW capacity is added in Ontario.

Freight
distribution has not changed dramatically since the
turn of the century, though reliance on trucks has declined
back to 1990 levels with marine and rail transport picking
up the difference. The efficiency of the trucks used
to move freight has doubled or tripled over the past
four decades and on average bio-diesel now provides
about 20 per cent of the energy required for the sector.

The
industrial structure in Canada has continued its gradual
shift to manufacturing, service and high technology
manufacturing. Energy intensive industries, while accounting
for a declining portion of overall industrial output,
have continued to increase their energy efficiency and
the value of product produced per unit of energy used.

While
domestic energy demands have fallen, the oil and gas
industry continues to produce at rates similar to those
achieved at the turn of the century, exporting oil and
gas to the US and the rest of the world.

As
noted above, the LULUCF impacts are beyond the scope
of this study, but there could be a strategic role for
the LULUCF “sector” on a low-emission strategy
with a time scale of 2050.The anthropogenic influence
on the total photosynthetic cycle in Canada is on the
order of tens of megatonnes of GHG per year. It can
be a source or a sink, and in recent years is estimated
to have been a net sink in the range of 40 Mt CO2 equivalent
per year.

This
is a significant amount when compared with the current
level of energy-related greenhouse gas emissions (600
Mt CO2 equivalent) and non-energy emissions (140 Mt
CO2 equivalent). In a scenario such as the one developed
here, in which Canadian energy-related greenhouse gas
emissions are in the range of 250 Mt CO2 equivalent
by 2050, a successful effort to sustain a 40- or 50-year
period in which LULUCF impacts contribute a net sink
effect on the order of 100 Mt CO2 equivalent (a very
rough estimate based on the assumption of moderately
increased levels of biological sequestration) could
make a significant contribution to achieving overall
climate change policy objectives.