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2011 KPIA Response – Figure 3 Description

Response of the National Round Table on the Environment and the Economy to its Obligations under the Kyoto Protocol Implementation Act - July 2011

Figure 3: Comparison of GHG Emissions Pathways under Various Scenarios

Figure 3 shows the KPIA integrated modelling forecasts as well as the government’s 2020 forecasts. Within the Kyoto period, it highlights projected emissions with and without federal programs and policies. The difference between these two trajectories is the projected emissions reductions attributable to federal policies. As the integrated modelling in the Plan indicates, Canada will likely not achieve its Kyoto target through domestic emissions reductions. The figure also highlights the government’s longer-term forecasts, both excluding government policy, and including both federal and provincial measures. As the figure illustrates, Canada will likely not achieve its 2020 emissions reduction target just with the suite of policies and programs currently being implemented.

In Figure 3, Canada's actual and projected GHG emissions are tracked from 1990 to 2020. The GHG emissions pathway from 1990 to 2012 (based on the Canadian GHG emissions inventory) is the following:

1990 = 592 Mt CO₂e
1991 = 585 Mt CO₂e
1992 = 602 Mt CO₂e
1993 = 604 Mt CO₂e
1994 = 624 Mt CO₂e
1995 = 641 Mt CO₂e
1996 = 659 Mt CO₂e
1997 = 672 Mt CO₂e
1998 = 678 Mt CO₂e
1999 = 691 Mt CO₂e
2000 = 717 Mt CO₂e
2001 = 711 Mt CO₂e
2002 = 717 Mt CO₂e
2003 = 741 Mt CO₂e
2004 = 741 Mt CO₂e
2005 = 731 Mt CO₂e
2006 = 718 Mt CO₂e
2007 = 747 Mt CO₂e
2008 = 732 Mt CO₂e
2009 = 690 Mt CO₂e
2010 = 721 Mt CO₂e
2011 = 723 Mt CO₂e
2012 = 731 Mt CO₂e

During the Kyoto Period

Under the KPIA integrated modelling reference case (emissions excluding federal government measures) emissions between 2008 and 2012 are as follows:

2008 = 734 Mt CO₂e
2009 = 694 Mt CO₂e
2010 = 726 Mt CO₂e
2011 = 729 Mt CO₂e
2012 = 740 Mt CO₂e

The KPIA integrated modelling scenario (emissions including federal government measures) delivers the following GHG emissions scenario:

2008 = 732 Mt CO₂e
2009 = 690 Mt CO₂e
2010 = 721 Mt CO₂e
2011 = 723 Mt CO₂e
2012 = 731 Mt CO₂e

Figure 3 also plots the expected growth in Canada's emissions to 2020. GHG emissions are expected to rise to 850 Mt CO₂e by 2020 under Environment Canada's business-as-usual scenario excluding government measures. GHG emissions are expected to rise to 785 Mt CO₂e under the Environment Canada scenario including federal and provincial government measures. Canada GHG emissions target for 2020 is 17% below 2005 levels, this would be 606.73 Mt CO₂e. The Kyoto target for Canada is 556.48 Mt CO₂e.