Home / Medium- and long-term scenarios for GHG emission and air pollutant reductions / ECC – Interim Report – Section 1

ECC – Interim Report – Section 1

Interim Report to the Minister of Environment

Previous - Content - Next

1 Introduction

1.1 Purpose

This Interim Report to the Minister of the Environment presents preliminary findings of research and analysis conducted by the National Round Table on the Environment and the Economy (NRTEE) in response to a request from the federal government for advice on targets and scenarios for reducing emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs) and air pollutants in Canada. The Interim Report:

• summarizes the scope and methodology of the NRTEE’s work to date;
• provides key initial findings of commissioned research under GHGs, air pollutants and integrated approaches; and
• identifies research questions and next steps in the NRTEE’s work.

A final report, with conclusions and recommendations, will be provided to the Minister by Fall 2007.

1.2 The Problem of GHGs and Air Pollutants

The impacts of greenhouse gases (GHG) and air pollutants (known as criteria air contaminants, or CACs) are a global concern. Scientific research is increasingly certain that anthropogenic GHG emissions are creating a discernable impact on the Earth’s climate. Central to this certainty is the observation that the atmosphere’s concentration of carbon dioxide (CO2), the principal GHG, is about 35% higher than its pre-industrial concentration of 280 parts per million by volume [ppmv]. Further, the current concentration of CO2, about 380 ppmv, has not occurred for hundreds of thousands, and perhaps even millions, of years. CO2 emissions have grown between 1970 and 2004 by about 80%, and represented 77% of total anthropogenic GHG emissions in 2004.1 The largest growth in global GHG emission between 1970 and 2004 has come from the energy supply sector (an increase of 145%). A main conclusion flowing from international scientific research is that in the absence of significant action to reduce GHGs emissions, atmospheric concentration of carbon will continue to increase, potentially causing “dangerous climate change”; typified by disruptions in the Earth’s temperature, precipitation, sea levels, ocean currents, biodiversity, and other natural systems.2 Canada continues to add to the atmospheric stock of GHGs. Canada’s emissions grew by 27% between 1990 and 2004, and were approximately 2% of global GHG emissions in 2004. Furthermore, Canada’s per capita emissions are among the highest in the world and continue to increase.3 As NRTEE members wrote in their advice to the government in advance of the international Conference of the Parties hosted by Canada in 2005 (COP-11): “We believe that the current and projected impacts of climate change constitute a significant threat to Canada’s national interest. Without deliberate global action to address GHG emissions, an accelerating rate of climate change will result in impacts that will threaten the sustainability of Canada’s economy and environment and the high quality of life that Canadians enjoy”. There is increasing pressure, both nationally and internationally, to take strong and immediate action to reduce GHG emissions. To date, much of the national and international focus on climate change mitigation has been on short-term emission reduction targets, as articulated in the Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). More recently, focus has shifted somewhat towards taking a longer-term view of emission reduction targets looking beyond 2012. However, no internationally agreed-upon quantitative long-term goal for GHG stabilization exists. The UNFCCC (through the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)) provides some guidance as to the form of an appropriate long-term goal: “to achieve the stabilization of GHG concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system.”4 CACs, including volatile organic compounds (VOCs), sulphur oxides (SOx), nitrous oxides (NOx), carbon monoxide (CO)5, and particulate matter (PM)6 (individually or in combination as smog and acid rain) have been shown to cause adverse health and environmental impacts. Notably, scientific evidence indicates a positive correlation between ambient air concentrations of the pollutants and significantly adverse effects on human health, ranging from chronic bronchitis to premature death and increased mortality. From an environmental perspective, smog has been linked to reduced plant productivity resulting in reduced agriculture crop yields and forest growth. Acid rain and acid deposition from SOx and NOx emissions also present a well known threat to ecosystems, notably lakes and forests. Due to the serious health and environmental impacts of CAC emissions, governments in Canada have a long history of developing policies to address these issues. However, despite small improvements in CAC emissions in recent years, local air pollution in many parts of the country continues to cause significant health and environmental impacts, and therefore remains a focus of government policy. Given the twin air emission pressures of GHGs and CACs, the Government of Canada is developing a coordinated regulatory approach for addressing both.7

1.3 The Government’s Clean Air Act Reference

In October 2006, the federal government introduced Canada’s Clean Air Act to Parliament, along with the Notice of Intent to Develop and Implement Regulations and Other Measures to Reduce Air Emissions. The Act and the Notice set out the government’s proposed plan to develop regulations for air emissions in key industrial sectors. Section 10 of the Notice identified a role for the NRTEE. This role was reiterated and enhanced through a Letter of Reference from the Minister of the Environment to the NRTEE Chair in November 2006. The Reference asks the NRTEE to provide advice on the following:

GHG Emissions

• Medium-term emissions reductions targets for 2020-2025 for GHG emission reductions for a number of specified industry sectors, recognizing the government’s intention to build upon the emissions-intensity approach with targets that are ambitious enough to translate effectively into a fixed cap on absolute emissions; and,
• The national emissions target that should be adopted within the range for a 45% – 65% reduction from 2003 levels by 2050, and scenarios for how this target could be achieved.

Air Pollutants

• National objectives for ambient air for particulate matter and ozone for the periods of 2020-2025 and 2050; and
• National emission reduction targets for 2050 for total emissions of sulphur dioxide, nitrogen oxides, gaseous ammonia, volatile organic compounds, and particulate matter, for a number of specified industry sectors.

The NRTEE was also directed to draw on experiences from other industrialized countries that are also looking at targets and policy approaches for GHG and air pollutant emissions reductions.Since directing the Reference to the NRTEE, the Government of Canada released the Regulatory Framework for Air Emissions (April 2007), in which it committed to reducing GHG emissions by 60% to 70% below 2006 levels by 2050. In its final phase of work the NRTEE will expand the scope of its analysis to address the implications of three GHG reduction targets: 45%, 65% and 80% (below 2003).1 Total GHG emissions include carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O), perfluorocarbons (PFCs), sulfur hexafluoride (SF6) and hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs).2 For a summary of global climate change science, see: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). 2007. “Climate Change 2007. The Physical Science Basis – Summary for Policymakers,” World Meteorological Organization / United National Environment Program, New York: Cambridge University Press.3 Details on Canada’s GHG emissions by sector and by region are available from: Government of Canada, 2006, “Canada’s Greenhouse Gas Inventory, 1990-2004”. Ottawa: Environment Canada. 4 United Nations, United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. New York: United Nations, 1992, accessed from http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/convkp/conveng.pdf June, 2005. 5 Carbon monoxide is an important indoor air pollutant, but was not considered as part of this work. 6 Airborne particulate matter (PM) consists of many different substances suspended in air in the form of particles (solids or liquid droplets) that vary widely in size. PM10 includes particulate matter with a mass median diameter of less than 10 µm; whereas PM2.5 has a mass median diameter less than 2.5 µm. The size of PM particles determines the extent of environmental and health damage caused. 7 Available at: http://www.ecoaction.gc.ca//news-nouvelles/20070426-1-eng.cfm